The year 2015 started turbulent for the Brazilian economy. We are living with the slightly pessimistic news. And the result is real, with the pardon of the pun. High inflation, unemployment, deceleration of production due to lack of demand in almost all sectors. One of the causes of rising inflation – which is already surpassing the government’s target – is the rise in the dollar. We are importing a lot, and this obviously drives up prices. The producer undertakes to pass on the costs to the consumer. In turn, high prices startle the buyer.
According to Ricardo Tosto, in this scenario of high exporters are practically the only ones to be benefited. On the other hand, if inflation rises too much will also be high interest, which ends up neutralizing the beneficial effect. “Bad is even for the consumer who sees the loss of their buying power every day,” summarizes Tosto.
Faced with the current political scenario, with the government trying to make the necessary fiscal adjustments and facing defeats in Congress, it is expected that this year the situation will tend to get worse. The rebalancing of the public accounts is a decisive factor for the country to regain credibility so desired by investors. But the proposals put forward by the government suffer hard blows from the oppositionists, and it will not be easy to achieve the objectives headed mainly by the Minister of Economy Joaquim Levy. To complicate matters, President Dilma’s popularity came down from the double-digit house, demonstrating the population’s dissatisfaction even in areas considered approving clusters, such as the Northeast.
Is it time to buy or sell dollars?
In Ricardo Tosto’s opinion, the situation varies from case to case. Example of who already had a trip marked abroad or who needs to make a box. It should be remembered that the dollar is not an investment and that if the multiple factors that are causing this increase are being overcome, such as fiscal adjustments and the resumption of investments in infrastructure, the tendency is to stabilize and even fall.
Does the crisis in Europe aggravate the scenario here?
Brazil is currently a substantial exporter of products to the EU, and the economic crisis in some European countries, such as Greece, can generate a cut in spending by European nations, which will lead to a drop in imports of Brazilian agricultural products. This will shift our trade balance to the import side. In addition to unbalancing Brazilian foreign trade, this process will lead to an increase in interest rates and a decrease in credit. Fragile and unstable economies tend to be seen as vulnerable and dangerous; and interest rates, tend to increase. As a result, a national currency devalued, says Ricardo Tosto.
For the exit of Brazil does not return to be the airport, as it was played in the past, it is believed that the main actors of the political and economic scenario are not: individualistic, corporatist, defending slices of power and having in their decisions an ideological bias. This was done to protect the collective and make Brazil a good place to live. A country with its balanced accounts, controlled inflation, and a strong currency, believes Ricardo Tosto. Thus, even unfavorable external conjunctures will not depart into an entire nation.
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